Thanks for that disclosure on the companies that are banner sponsors amigo. Everyone should check out the free articles that Erik writes over at The Hedgeless Horseman website, as he takes a lot of time to do some deep dives into the companies he researches and does and excellent job. Cheers!
.
P.S. – I taking advantage of the patience arbitrage on a number of companies right now that have been slow on news due to assay lab delays, and the market has thrown in the towel, but when the assays finally come back in over the next 2-3 months, and when the sector sentiment picks up into next year, then we may see some of these get moving in a bigger way and then investors will be chasing them higher.

STATS Price Quality (PMs) : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
Short term swings can be accurately determined.
General markets may be an influence.
(NY Time: 20211126.0900)

Very welcome and very glad you get some value out of it Christopher!

Patience, buying low, lower, more patience, more pain and more patience etc is not sexy. In forums people often get trolled for owning something that is down for an extended period of time and I think our egos have a hard time looking wrong for more than a short period. You might be right on the defensive thing. I guess it is because I know it looks and sound so weird that someone could be bullish, even increasingly so, after such a long decline. I mean on surface it looks like everyone owning miners have been continuously wrong for 15 months. Yet, that comes with the territory and my goal is to simply buy cheap, and increasingly so, as it gets cheaper. I have no idea when the next leg up will start but I know that I expect my portfolio to double from here and if it takes another year it would still be worth it. In the meantime I do try to find some that can buck the trend even in this poor market environment where nothing positive gets discounted really.

All the best,
Erik

Christopher – I’d agree that for the vast majority of commodity mining stocks, that trading them has been a much more profitable strategy, and not just in gold & silver stocks, but copper stocks, lithium stocks, uranium stocks, palladium & nickel stocks, oil/gas stocks, etc….
.
Many retail investors try to force the Jesse Livermore “old-turkey” philosophy of “buy right and sit tight” [which he was doing in the general stocks indexes and blue-chip stocks] onto the very cyclical and volatile commodity stocks, and that just creates road-kill turkey most of the time… (and not the kind that would be celebrated for Thanksgiving). 🙂
.
Sure, there are a few extreme examples from best in class companies one could cherry pick about buy and holding working out — like Great Bear, New Found Gold, or Eskay Mining or maybe Wesdome & K92 Mining, but for the other 1000+ gold and silver stocks and the hundreds of other base metals and battery metals stock buy and hold was not the best approach. Most of the mining stocks have whipsawed all over the place for many years, had a few months to maybe a year or so of big legs higher, and many other periods of big legs lower as well, but mostly chopped around rising and falling dramatically in different parts of the cycles over the years.
.
Most mining stocks were absolutely much better trades, than simply buying and holding and not taking appropriate action to manage downside risk, and maximize upside rallies. When time were good the buy and hold crowd did not trim some back in the rallies, and were forced to watch their paper gains come right back down again. When times were rough in the sector, buy and hold investors were “all in” or reluctant to buy back into the selloffs at a better cost basis. This is especially obvious in the explosive exploration plays that may shoot up like a rocket ship, and then come crashing back to earth like a meteorite. Most investors that bought and held haven’t seen much traction over longer periods of time in the miners, like they would have in the general market indexes, with many miners essentially flat, and some even down over longer periods of time. That’s not a winning strategy, and why there are so many disgruntled resource investors, because they are treating these like Facebook or Amazon or Tesla, and that is not how the commodities or mining stocks behave.
.
It is interesting that most of the whining and gnashing of teeth we get from jaded investors in chat forums here, on ceo.ca, on stockhouse, hotcopper, seeking alpha, twitter, youtube, etc… with regards to sentiment in mining stocks, is coming from the retail hordes that ignore technical analysis, bought into strength once the easy money had been made in rallies and the move was finally “confirmed,” and then held tight because they felt right at the time, only to watch paper gains evaporate and big draw downs happen. They assume everyone is as poor at investing as they are and say there were no opportunities for gains in this sector and that everyone is losing money. Clearly that isn’t true, but they see the world through their portfolio and assume if they are down that so it everyone else.
.
Instead of taking accountability for their own poor decisions, and risk management strategies they blame the companies, blame the sector, and blame manipulation, when the problem was they executed bad trades. I’ve personally made far more money trading mining stocks than if I had just bought and held, even considering often buying the dips and getting good initial entry points. Good entry points are great and part of it, but so is pulling profits on rallies, and then repurchasing on pullbacks. Many of my best returns came during periods of time where it was essentially sideways action that provided a series of rallies higher, and pullbacks lower. There are many stocks in my portfolio that I’ve trade dozens and dozens of times, all while keeping a core position in place for the occasional surprises to the upside. It was still better to trade the rallies and the corrections accordingly, and the whipsaw is fantastic for traders, while it frustrates longer term buy & hold investors.
.
However, moving into 2022 and 2023, even the buy and hold investors in the PM sector should be nicely rewarded, as we should have a longer run to the upside in the years to come. It seems likely that after the near-term weakness is finished, that moving into next year the looming Fed rate hikes on the table, that the PMs will perform much better, and we may see another run more akin to late 2018 – mid 2020.

Partial fallout from the decline in trucking?

+350